Jenson Button claimed pole position for tonight’s Monaco Grand Prix, but I don’t think that this will guarantee him victory in the race. We all know how important it is to be on pole on the streets of Monte Carlo, but he did not put in a quick lap until the final seconds of qualifying. Raikkonen starts second but has a lighter fuel load and a KERS advantage that should get him into the lead before the first corner.
Vettel is back in 4th and is very light on fuel. He will pit at about lap 12, 9 or 10 laps before Button. I expected better of the Red Bulls here, as they have performed well all week. Webber is starting in 8th place after a poor 3rd qualifying session, even though he was third fastest in Q1 and Q2. His poor strategy has put him way back, but I still think he will be quick enough to challenge for a podium.
The way it looks at the moment, it will be Button and Barrichello, who is starting 3rd, challenging for victory. The Ferrari will lead until the first round of pit stops, but after he pits on lap 18 Button and Barrichello should then dominate the race.
If Vettel was not so light on fuel and was not starting as far back as fourth I would have selected him as the winner, yet his only chance is to get to the front at the start and then run away with the race. Unfortunately the Ferrari has it’s KERS button that should allow it to jump to the lead, while Vettel needs to be a lot more aggressive than he has been lately and pass Button, Barrichello and Raikkonen on the track if he is to have any chance at victory.